Analyse de l’effet de l’inflation sur la dette extérieure au Cameroun.

Abstract

The economic performance of a country is assessed by several factors, including the level of debt. Sustained and sustainable economic performance remains one of the centers of interest of its leaders. The objective of this study is mainly to assess the effect of inflation on the external debt in Cameroon. More specifically, it was to examine the impact of the consumer price index and the GDP deflator on Cameroon's external debt. For the verification of our hypotheses we used secondary source data from the World Bank database in the "World Development Indicator 2020", with the exception of institutional variables which come from the "Fraser Institute 2019". To achieve our objectives, the basic debt model of K. Ojo (1989) was used. For the econometric analysis, we used the Ordinary Least Squares Method (OLS) and the Double Least Squares Method (DMC). Statistically speaking, the results of the verification of our hypothesis show us that, inflation has a positive and significant impact on the external debt in Cameroon. Legal system, the population, trade openness and the GDP growth rate have a negative and significant effect on the external debt as long as the government variable positively affects the external debt in Cameroon. At the end of the results obtained, we recommend that leaders and monetary authorities improve the institutional framework and seriously analyze the loans contracted, in particular from the angle of their current and future impact on the State budget.